COVID 19 Is A Real Killer; Don’t Be Fooled By It’s Low Mortality Rate
By RKB
♦️Here’s the problem with Covid-19:
♦️If we do nothing, it goes out of control
♦️Don’t be fooled by the less than 2% mortality rate of the virus; it peaks suddenly and hits you when you feel you have recovered
♦️It originated in one of the several species of horseshoe bat found throughout east and south-east Asia.
♦️Possibly, a pig or another animal ate the bat’s droppings off a piece of fruit, before being sold at a wet market in Wuhan, China, and subsequently infecting one of the stallholders. And no this is not from the movie CONTAGION; but there are only so many ways a Corona type virus can be transmitted
♦️Or maybe the first transmission to a human occurred in some other way; not in the way the Hollywood screenplay shows
♦️There is a lot we don’t know about the novel coronavirus now called SARS-CoV-2 and its resultant disease, COVID-19.
♦️What we do know is that Chinese authorities alerted the World Health Organization (WHO) to the first known cases in Wuhan at the end of last year.
♦️Less than a fortnight later, one of those infected people was dead.
♦️By the end of January, with more than 10,000 diagnosed cases and 200 fatalities in China alone, and with the virus cropping up far beyond the country’s borders, the WHO declared a global emergency.
♦️There is nearly universal agreement on this point.
♦️Every week the number of infected people doubles or triples, according to the best estimates of R0 today.
♦️Within about two months, hospitals start to collapse under the pressure (Italy) and can survive only by building emergency new facilities using help from the rest of the country (Wuhan).
♦️However, if you really are doing nothing, then one and a half to months later the rest of the country falls down and there are no more medical facilities left
♦️At this point, there are no more ICU beds, isolation wards have already burst and the mortality rate goes from 2% to 5-10% because we run out of respirators and even paracetamol
♦️On the other hand, we declare a state of emergency; schools shut down, airports virtually close, and the country goes on lockdown.
♦️All for what, like 300 cases?
♦️Every churlish ignoramus will ask “ why did you do this when more people die of the influenza virus every year?”
♦️That’s because COVID 19 grows in geometric progression and soon takes over whole nations
♦️And yes after the disease is successfully suppressed a few months later, everything opens back up and we look around and say, gee, why did we even do that?!
♦️Why did the country shut down when the ordinary flu killed 100x more people this year? ♦️Didn’t we way overreact?
♦️But the difference between 5,000 cases and 5 million cases is 10 weeks of inaction, and an attitude of “everything’s alright” and this baby will also take care of itself after peaking out!
♦️That is why governments around the world are taking severe and enormous action now, because we are at the edge of a precipice just ready to fall over into the depths of a horrific pandemic
♦️To answer the original question — will Covid-19 be considered a pandemic in two years?
♦️That depends on us.
♦️If you have a cough and/or a fever, stay at home and stay away from others.
♦️You probably have a cold, but if you’re a minimally symptomatic carrier, you can do your part by making sure your particular Covid-19 ends at you and doesn’t get passed on to another person.
♦️The WHO reports that the virus has spread to 166 countries, areas and territories, with over 205,000 confirmed cases worldwide and the number of deaths exceeding 8500.
♦️The status of “pandemic” was officially designated on 11 March and many countries have introduced social distancing, travel restrictions and quarantine methods to try to curb the spread.
♦️Festivals, sports events, parades and conferences are being called off due to the front-line support services they require and the concern that large gatherings of people could help spread the virus
♦️When it comes to viruses, there is good reason to worry about novelty.
♦️Throughout its history, humanity has had to contend with new diseases springing up seemingly out of nowhere, spreading like wildfire and leaving scores of dead in their wake.
♦️In ages past, bacterial plagues were often the source of that terror.
♦️Since the birth of modern medicine, however, novel viruses have assumed the mantle of doom.
♦️Take Spanish flu for example, which killed up to 100 million people a century ago, and then more recently, HIV, which has led to around 32 million deaths to date.
♦️It is only a matter of time before another devastating pandemic, and though epidemiologists do not know what type of virus it will be, they do know that it will be different from anything witnessed before.
♦️Whether or not SARS-CoV-2 is the next “big one”, there is something else epidemiologists are grimly aware of: today, disease travels fast.
♦️The Black Death that ravaged Europe, as well as parts of Asia and Africa, in the mid-14th century spread at an average of just 1.5 km a day – hardly surprising, since this was before ships could reliably cross oceans and the fastest mode of transport was by horse. ♦️Contrast that with the 2015 outbreak of Zika virus in South America, where the daily dispersion was on average 42 km, peaking in the densest-populated parts of Brazil at 634 km.
♦️Faced with more populous cities, more mobile people and more international travel, scientists must respond to the threat of viral pandemics faster than ever.
♦️So co-operate with your Govts, Prime Minister Modi is doing what any responsible Head Of State would do; preparing us for the hard battle to come♦️And yes stay indoors as far as is possible and self quarantine if you have even the hint of contact with anyone who has tested COVID 19 positive
